脱颖而出

A |     8月24日消息，今日，市场调查机构Counterpoint Research发布报告称，受零部件成本上涨、低价位产品供应减少以及消费者购买力减弱等因素影响，2026年全球智能手机出货量预计同比下降14.3%。

B |     Beginning next week, people wanting to enter certain public facilities in China will need to show proof of COVID-19 vaccination or of having a medical reason for not getting the shot, Li Ang, deputy director of the Beijing Municipal Health Commission, told reporters on Wednesday.,The list includes museums, theaters, stadiums, gyms, and other entertainment venues; in addition, elderly people will also have to show proof of vaccination to enter community facilities such as game rooms. Restaurants and public transportation are exempt from the new requirement.,The new mandate is in addition to a standing requirement for residents of the Chinese capital city to get tested every three days and to need a negative test to enter public venues.,A year ago, when the Delta variant of COVID-19 caused the worst outbreak in China since the one that started the pandemic, and Beijing responded by ushering in the “Zero Covid” policy, the National Health Commission urged provincial authorities to keep the vaccination program “informed, consented and voluntary” and not to introduce mandates for public access, as many Western states had done.,However, that was before China succeeded at vaccinating 87% of its 1.4 billion-strong population, including 97% of Chinese adults, and before the Omicron variant caused the worst and most persistent outbreaks for China until now in the pandemic.,The change also comes as the NHC relaxes travel quarantine requirements for the first time since the start of the pandemic in early 2020, but also as Beijing health authorities indicated they were planning for “Zero Covid” to last another five years.,The NHC reported 427 new cases on the Chinese mainland on Wednesday, most of them concentrated in the eastern provinces of Anhui and Jiangsu, and no new deaths. The news brings the total detected cases on the mainland since the start of the pandemic to 226,176, while total deaths remained at 5,226. The situation has been less rosy in Hong Kong, a special administrative region with greater autonomy, and in Taiwan, where an autonomous government with foreign backing rules in defiance of Chinese claims of sovereignty.,Paradoxically, Chinese elders have a lower vaccination rate than younger generations. Last month, the Financial Times reported that Chinese cities had begun offering “vaccine insurance” to people over the age of 60, pledging to cover their medical costs related to any potential complications caused by vaccination. Some two-thirds of Chinese citizens over 60 are under-vaccinated, with 95 million not having gotten their booster shot as of June 5.,Ma Chaofeng, a health official in Shaanxi’s capital of Xi'an, told reporters on Tuesday that more than two dozen cases had been detected in the city and were identified as the BA 5.2 subvariant of Omicron. The city introduced new mass nucleic testing on Wednesday in an attempt to stay ahead of a larger outbreak, with most commercial and medical institutions remaining open as normal. Nonetheless, in the West, where essentially all pandemic mitigation measures have been discarded, the move was described as “Xi’an shuts back down.”,“The transmission chain is clear, the source is clear,” Pang Xinghuo, deputy director of the Beijing Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, told reporters on Wednesday about the imported cluster in Xi’an. “The outbreak is considered to be controllable overall, based on the existing epidemic development trend.”。     Counterpoint预计，2027年全球智能手机市场仍将面临较大挑战，出货量或进一步下降1.4%，随后市场有望从2028年开始逐步恢复。    报告指出，本轮智能手机市场下行主要由供应链和成本压力推动，而需求端则呈现明显分化。    其中，高端智能手机市场仍保持相对稳健，大众市场则成为此次下滑的主要承压区间。    供应端方面，手机存储仍是当前主要制约因素之一，同时芯片价格上涨也在持续影响高端、中端以及传统产品平台。     Counterpoint认为，此轮成本上涨对低价位智能手机的冲击尤为明显。    由于零部件成本在低价位产品物料清单（BOM）中的占比更高，厂商通过自身利润消化成本上涨的空间有限，因此低价位产品的出货量预计将受到更大影响。    为应对成本压力，手机厂商正在采取提高售价、削减低利润配置，以及将资源集中到更少的产品和重点市场等策略。

C |     值得注意的是，本轮市场下行还可能重塑全球智能手机市场竞争格局。    Counterpoint预计，三星有望在2026年重新夺回全球智能手机市场第一的位置。     数据显示，2026年三星智能手机出货量预计同比增长约0.8%，在全球市场整体预计下滑14.3%的背景下实现逆势增长。    三星能够保持相对稳健的表现，与其广泛的全球市场布局、完善的供应链体系，以及在存储和半导体零部件供应方面更稳定的获取能力有关。    Counterpoint Research首席分析师表示，三星重返榜首的关键，在于其内部零部件供应能力、丰富的产品组合，以及成熟的运营商和零售合作关系。     这些优势使三星能更加灵活地保障供应、在不同市场之间调配产品，并维持终端供应稳定。    该分析师同时指出，三星可能会为了争夺更多市场份额，在盈利能力方面做出一定让步，但这种取舍仍有望让其在行业下行周期中，相比大多数竞争对手处于更有利的位置。