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湖人125亿买贵了？虽有泡沫 但总比投资AI稳多了 起码不会打水漂_我的网站

A |     译者注：本文原发表自Los Angeles Times，作者是Steve Henson，文中数据均截至原文发稿前（8月25日），文中观点与译者及平台无关。马克·沃尔特以创纪录的价格转手了湖人。    

    Elliot James Reay sings on stage at a Chinese live show. Photo: Courtesy of UMG
Elliot James Reay could have copied every other Western act and sung a Taylor Swift cover. Instead, he took 1950s rock'n'roll to a live TV show where autotune is switched off and discovered a version of fame that Britain has forgotten.
Elliot James Reay was traveling in the US, trying to finish a song, when his manager called. There was an invitation to join Singer 2026, a prime-time live music show in China. Reay didn't hesitate. He had traveled the world before he was a full-time musician, but had run out of money before reaching China. "I went everywhere but China," he said while sitting for an interview with the Global Times, sitting in the office of his label in Beijing, from which the Palace Museum can be seen not far away. 
Reay is, in the West, a very 2020s kind of artist. He began posting short covers on short video platform TikTok in 2019; during the UK Covid lockdown, he chose to focus on growing his fan base. He now has millions of followers across platforms, and his debut single notched 10 million views before it was even released. In the British industry, this is both a leg-up and a trap. "You can have all the followers," he says, "but they don't guarantee people will buy tickets."
In China, that equation flipped.
    Elliot James Reay sings on stage Photo: Courtesy of UMG
Nervous again
The Chinese show, Singer 2026 is broadcast completely live, with no pitch correction. For Reay, who had played enough small gigs to feel comfortable in his own skin, it was a shock. "I haven't felt nerves in a long time," he says. "But I've never been in a competition before. To have my singing judged against other people made me really nervous."
He watched Week One's performances from the wings and saw why. "The standard was terrifying," he says. 
But the format, he admits, is something the UK no longer has: a televised singing contest that treats vocal ability as a public event, not a pre-packaged product. "It made me feel like I just started my career again."
Reay's lane is retro. Not as pastiche, but as lineage. He wears the silhouette of Elvis Presley, sings in the grain of 1950s pop, and writes songs that sound like they were cut from a Sun Records demo. He could have sanded it down for Chinese audiences, but he didn't.
"Someone has to start the wave before you can see it," he says. Among the songs he performed were "Unchained Melody" and his original track "I Think They Call This Love," which he co-wrote with his girlfriend. He points out that the Beatles still sit next to Taylor Swift on the radio, and that pop started in the 50s. "It's the foundations of pop," he says.
Learning to feel the words
In the final, Reay performed a bilingual version of the Chinese song "Hou Hui Wu Qi" (The End of the World). It was his first time singing in another language. He spent five days learning the Chinese lyrics, listening to the original on loop.
"There are sounds in Chinese we just don't have in English," he says. "I couldn't hear the difference at first. I'd say it, and Helen (his translator) would say, 'No.' I thought I was saying the same thing." Eventually, he stopped trying to hear it and started trying to feel it. "It became more about how it felt to say it. How I place my tongue in my mouth," he says.
He didn't understand the meaning until day three. "Helen gave me a card with the Chinese characters and the English translation. It's very poetic," he says. The performance received a strong reaction, with it being called an attempt at "cultural fusion." 
He had saved his own original, "I Think They Call This Love," co-written with his girlfriend, for the same final. He had held the song back deliberately. "I knew that any week was my last week," he says, "but I knew that if I made it to the grand final that I had to do it then." He had no idea it would become the last song of the entire show. 
When he finished, he walked straight off stage, took his girlfriend's hand, and the two of them left together, a moment that trended on Chinese social media that night. 
The song is about the exact point they realized they were in love; it was also the first track of his career he fully believed in and pushed into the world. Having her there to watch it live, after weeks of her only seeing performances on a phone in a hotel room, "tied the whole thing in a bow at the end."
A touring musician, not a TikToker 
Reay is open about the tension between his origin story and his ambition. "I don't want to be a TikTok celebrity," he says. "I'm a musician. I want to tour." 
The platform gave him an audience, but it also boxed him in. He remembers friends who wrote incredible songs during lockdown, while he chose to build a fan base. Now, he says, some of those friends have had to stop writing and make TikTok videos instead.
China, he says, gave him permission to be both an online creator and a live performer. Universal Music, his label, didn't push him to chase trends. "They never said, 'Do this, do that,'" he says. "They supported what I wanted to sing, and then they made it the best version they could."
Before Reay, a string of international artists had already found warm receptions and career-shifting opportunities in China. Kazakhstani singer Dimash Kudaibergen, Malaysian star Shila Amzah, US country artist Mickey Guyton, British vocalist Jessie J, and French singer-songwriter Joyce Jonathan all won large Chinese audiences through high-profile television appearances and live performances, each using the platform to open a new chapter in their careers.
He's already planning a return. He wants to bring a tour. He wants to buy the traditional instruments he saw on set and take them home to England. "I'm going to learn how to play them," he says, "and maybe put them into my music."
The advice he'd give other Western artists looking East is to stay loyal to yourself. "Be yourself," he says. "It's very easy to want to change yourself to fit into a market, but at the end of the day, if you stay true to yourself, you'll be happy."
"In the UK, I felt like I needed to do other things to make other people happy," he says. 
"If I hadn't stopped doing that, I wouldn't be sitting here. I wouldn't have done the show. My whole journey would be different," he says.
。鲍勃·艾格和约什·库什纳买亏了吗？无论以何种标准衡量，约书亚·库什纳和鲍勃·艾格都是成功的商人，他们斥资125亿美元买下了湖人，这无疑是体育界球队有史以来的最高价格。这是收购知名体育品牌的一次罕见机会，而且大家都认为，时机就是一切。这一巨额售价对NBA的其余球队产生了影响，并引出了一个基本问题：库什纳和艾格是做了一笔好买卖，还是溢价收购？商业巨头马克·沃尔特拥有这支NBA球队仅仅一年的时间。联邦监管机构正在调查沃尔特的金融帝国。据报道，他感到被迫出售球队，因为他正在转移数十亿美元，以帮助解开他的两家保险公司向跨国控股公司TWG Global提供的一笔未披露的关联方贷款，他是该集团的首席执行官。在许多人得知沃尔特可能有兴趣迅速出售球队之前，一直渴望拥有一支NBA球队的库什纳和艾格就抓住了这个机会。交易的仓促似乎给了买家极大的谈判筹码，然而沃尔特却在他去年10月买下这支球队花费的100亿美元的基础上，将价格提高了25%。

B | 一些专家认为，湖人绝对物超所值。对老牌体育球队市场的深入研究向Sports Value Consulting的联合创始人兼首席执行官迈克尔·拉普科赫表明，这笔投资是相当稳健的。拉普科赫说：“湖人多久才会被出售一次？如果有人有能力，为什么不付这笔钱呢？难道你要在鸡尾酒会上说，你本可以买下这支球队，但因为你不愿出价超过110亿美元而拒绝了吗？这可能是你绝无仅有的机会。要么买下，要么错过。”十二年前，史蒂夫·鲍尔默斥资20亿美元买下了快船，并承认自己心甘情愿地出了高价。

C | 2025年，与湖人一样有着辉煌历史的凯尔特人以61亿美元的价格被售出，这与《福布斯》的市场估值非常接近。不到一年后，湖人就以两倍多的价格售出。一些专家对这个价格感到震惊。“你买东西必须基于其收入潜力、成本支出、盈亏情况，有节制地进行，”畅销商业作家威廉·D·科汉在一档播客节目中说，“你不得不相信，艾格和库什纳被想要拥有这支球队的欲望冲昏了头脑。“和往常对待这类资产一样，你必须买得聪明、买得正确，否则你就会多花钱。如果你陷入了交易狂热——我感觉鲍勃·艾格就是这样……当你支付了过高的价格时，就很难获得回报。”顶级体育球队的价值飙升得如此之快，以至于人们对高昂的标价已经见怪不怪了。在沃尔特买下湖人不久后，体育商业网站Sportico的数据显示，NBA球队的平均市值为55.1亿美元，一年内增长了20%，自2022年以来更是飙升了113%。勇士以113.3亿美元位居榜首，湖人以100亿美元紧随其后——这也反映了沃尔特买下球队时的价格——而灰熊则以40亿美元垫底。这30支NBA球队的总市值达到了1650亿美元。

D | 打破纪录收购NBA、NFL和MLB球队的举动最初往往被认为是出价过高，但很快又会被认为是划算的买卖。鲍尔默和艾格一样，在早先对球队的竞标中都以失败告终，他不想在竞价快船时让这种情况再次发生。他承认自己屈服于交易狂热，但从未后悔过。《福布斯》估计，快船如今的价值已经达到了75亿美元。“我孤注一掷，然后进入了竞标过程。我依然全力以赴，我只是说，我一定要拿下这支球队，”鲍尔默在2023年的一档播客中说道，“人们觉得我出价太高了，但我得到了球队。”专家表示，顶级体育球队的价值涉及有别于大多数其他公司的三个因素：通过联盟长期的媒体转播权协议获得的保底收入；推动赞助和球队商品带来稳定附加收入的区域及全球品牌效应；以及培养球迷极高忠诚度的极端稀缺性。

E | 各大球队——比如湖人、道奇、达拉斯牛仔和纽约洋基——不会经常易主。库什纳和艾格之前陷入了为获得拉斯维加斯NBA扩军球队批准的漫长斗争中，他们显然将湖人视为一个更好的机会。最近获批的NBA媒体转播权协议在2025年至2036年间每年价值69亿美元。

F | 其中包括联盟与拥有ESPN续约，以及与NBC环球和亚马逊达成的新协议，根据协议，ABC/ESPN、NBC/Peacock和Prime Video将转播NBA比赛。一些金融专家认为，投资湖人的风险要远低于投资OpenAI——库什纳通过他的风险投资公司Thrive Capital向OpenAI投资了约20亿美元。这项投资以及在人工智能和科技领域的其他投资都获得了丰厚的回报，但转向拥有一支下限极高的老牌NBA球队可能是明智之举。

G | 艾格刚在两次执掌华特迪士尼公司后卸任。

H | 拉普科赫说：“与大多数其他投资相比，NBA拥有更安全、更稳定的年度留存收入。你买的是一项稳定的资产。15到20年后，湖人依然会在那里。一家AI公司会在那里吗？也许吧。但许多公司来了又走。我们可以高度肯定，湖人看到不会倒闭。”一些认为库什纳和艾格一时冲动而溢价收购的人，指出艾格在2019年为迪士尼赢得了与康卡斯特争夺21世纪福克斯的竞标战。价格从540亿美元飙升至720亿美元，迪士尼因此背负了250亿美元的债务，而且回报参差不齐。艾格拒绝承认自己头脑发热，他在2024年11月与分析师的电话会议上坚持认为，这笔交易中他更看重的是流媒体的视角。他断言，如果没有福克斯庞大的内容库（包括阿凡达系列、辛普森一家、FX和国家地理），迪士尼就不可能成功推出并扩大Disney+的规模。NBA球队的收入不如迪士尼那样多元化，但联盟在2024-25赛季创造了122.5亿美元的收入——平均每支球队4.08亿美元——其中包括在球队拥有或运营的场馆举办的音乐会等活动。这些收入从勇士的8.33亿美元到灰熊的3.01亿美元不等。但是，NBA球队也不存在电影制片厂在流媒体时代所面临的一些商业挑战。拉普科赫指出，目前尚不清楚库什纳和艾格将拥有湖人的多少股份。沃尔特的多数股权份额尚未公开披露。无论少数股东作何决定，都不会影响沃尔特多数股权的出售，拉普科赫说。他的公司为50多支职业体育球队提供了估值服务和运营咨询。假设他们得到了NBA理事会的批准，艾格和库什纳将拥有湖人。拉普科赫说：“鲍勃和约什会做得非常出色。他们了解洛杉矶，并且他们会给这支球队带来全新的面貌。

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